While pro-impeachment Democrat politicians get all the airtime, the fact is that there are quite a few in Congress who are wary of the push to impeach President Trump.
Granted, many of these same Democrats voted in favor of beginning the impeachment inquiry a few months back, most likely at the behest of senior members of their party. However, now that the recent hearings have failed to boost support for their cause, there is no telling how they will vote on actual articles of impeachment. This puts the Democratic Party in the embarrassing position of facing bipartisan opposition to their already-questionable impeachment drive.
Democratic leaders are prepared for the possibility of a few defections, but are predicting that the “no” votes within their own party will be minimal. One progressive analyst set the number at two or three; another said it won’t be more representatives than can be counted on one hand. However, there are a few hard facts that many of these analysts are failing to consider.
First of all, there are more than three dozen Democrats in the House of Representatives who know that they could lose their seats in 2020 if they vote in favor of impeaching President Trump. The Cook Political Report accurately notes that eighteen Democrat-held seats will be a “toss-up” in the next election, while an additional eighteen are “highly competitive.”
Furthermore, support for impeachment has decreased since the House began holding public hearings. At this point, more than 50% of all likely voters oppose impeachment, and many of these “likely voters” live in districts that elected a “moderate” Democrat in the 2018 mid-term election.
Voters in swing districts are making their voices heard, letting their representatives know that they vehemently oppose the effort to depose a democratically-elected president on flimsy evidence. Rep. Elissa Slotkin from Michigan was heckled by voters in her district when she brought up the topic, while Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia faced angry constituents in her district who blatantly called her defense of impeachment “bull—-“, “crap”, and “lies”.
It remains to be seen if these and other Democrat representatives will listen to their constituents over their own party leaders. Many of them should consider what happened in the wake of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s contentious hearing. “Moderate” Democrats in the Senate who opposed his confirmation lost their seats to Republican challengers in the 2018 midterm election, while Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin, who bucked his party to vote in favor of Justice Kavanaugh, won re-election. Given this, it’s not surprising that more than a dozen vulnerable Democrats are looking for a way to convince party leaders to censure President Trump rather than vote to impeach him. Unfortunately for these Democrats, Speaker of the House Rep. Nancy Pelosi has already dismissed their concerns.
Some pundits are saying that there is no way the House would call for a vote on impeachment without knowing beyond a shadow of a doubt that it could pass. Analysts also note that the Democratic Party can lose seventeen votes from within their own ranks, and still impeach President Trump. However, it’s clear that many vulnerable Democrats are seriously considering joining the two brave members of their party who voted “no” on beginning the inquiry the first time.
