When Speaker of the House Paul Ryan stunned his fellow Republicans by announcing he would not seek re-election to congress, he also assured his colleagues and the American people that he did not intend to leave the speakership position before the conclusion of the 115th Congress in January 2019.
Nevertheless, speculation about his successor began immediately. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Ca) and Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La) have been the most frequently mentioned candidates; Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Oh), co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus is now considering tossing his own hat into the ring as well.
Ryan’s April 13 endorsement of Rep. Kevin McCarthy for the speaker position triggered nervous reactions. As he originally said he would hold any endorsements until after the November elections, many saw Ryan’s move as an attempt to quiet those House Republicans who feel he should give up his speakership in the next few weeks. Many Republicans insist that maintaining control of the House must be their biggest concern, adding that a months-long struggle to replace Ryan would be a distraction they did not need.
Some Republicans also questioned whether Ryan – as a lame duck speaker – could maintain his massive fundraising efforts, which included $55 million this election cycle alone. As for the House Freedom Caucus, members say they would like to see‘…whoever runs for speaker’ endorse a strong conservative for a top leadership position in the next congress.
McCarthy, as the current House majority leader and second ranking Republican official in the House is considered likely to succeed Ryan as speaker and take the helm of the House Republican Conference.
“We all think Kevin is the right person to become speaker” Ryan said on NBC’s “Meet the Press”. Ryan reiterated that any leadership election should wait until after the November elections. Rep. Scalise also endorsed McCarthy on Friday.
“I’ve never run against Kevin and wouldn’t run against Kevin,” Scalise said, adding that when McCarthy declared a bid for the speaker spot, Scalise will back him. Interestingly, Ryan’s endorsement of McCarthy came just hours after Rep. Jordan acknowledged he is considering a challenge to McCarthy.
“There is no speaker’s race right now. Paul Ryan is the speaker,” Jordan said Friday. “If and when there is, I’ve been urged by colleagues to consider that, and I am definitely open to that. Right now, though, the focus has got to be the next six months- us keeping the majority.”
While a bid from Jordan is admittedly a long-shot, the interest in the position from the Freedom Caucus co-founder may actually ensure that the leadership elections will be put off until November as all parties seem to agree is best.
Speaker Ryan has also met with Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga), a McCarthy ally who has been urging colleagues towards a swift transition. Graves declined to say whether he still wants Ryan out sooner.
“I can assure you he wants what’s best for our conference,” Graves said. “And so we’ll look forward to the days ahead.”
As for McCarthy, the Freedom Caucus may be willing to support him for speaker if he agrees to help one of their members become House majority leader or GOP whip. The next speaker must get 218 votes in a roll-call floor vote, which means a candidate cannot succeed if they lose the 30-plus Freedom Caucus members, whose power is in voting, or withholding votes en bloc. Déjà-vu for Kevin McCarthy.
McCarthy won his first election in 2006, and won the minority leadership in 2014 – beating Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Id) – who went on to co-found the Freedom Caucus. When John Boehner resigned in 2015, McCarthy sought the speakership. However, claims from the Freedom Caucus that he was not conservative enough led McCarthy to withdraw his bid just hours before a vote; it was then that Paul Ryan reluctantly took the job.
In the subsequent years, McCarthy has worked hard to cultivate support for another speaker’s bid; he also enjoys a good relationship with President Trump. Jordan is immensely popular in conservative grassroots circles, and maintains a presence on conservative media sites, but is not well liked by a number of other Republicans. He could however take enough votes away from McCarthy to be problematic.
~ Liberty Planet
